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Ottawa’s MLS® Market Making Headway

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December 9, 2024

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The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) totaled 1,059 units in November 2024 — a slight dip down from the 1,179 units sold the month previous.

Home sales were 3.1% below the five-year average and 0.5% below the 10-year average for the month of November.

On a year-to-date basis, home sales totaled 12,882 units in November 2024 — an increase of 11.8% from the same period in 2023.

“Ottawa’s market is making headway on a long road back from the slowdown experienced in 2023,” says OREB Past-President Curtis Fillier. “Buyers have been slow to come back to the market while watching the interest rates lower, and some are waiting to see how new mortgage rules — the extended amortization period and the increased default insurance cap — coming into effect in December may redefine their purchasing power. Sellers have noticed that caution and those who can are likely holding on for a more active spring.”

“There will be the typical slowdown at this time of the year as people’s attentions turn to the holidays, and the snow starts to cover a property’s selling features,” says Fillier. “With prices holding steady and open houses getting traffic, though, people are keeping a close eye on opportunities.”

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $636,700 in November 2024, an increase of 1.5% from November 2023

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $722,400, up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in November. By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $491,500, up 0.3% compared to a year earlier. The benchmark apartment price was $406,200, down 3.7% from last year.

The average price of homes sold in November 2024 was $667,098 increasing 4.6% from November 2023. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $679,797, increasing by 1.2% from November 2023. The dollar volume of all home sales in November 2024 was $706.4 million, up 51.8% from November 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar
volume of all properties sold. Prices will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

The number of new listings saw a decrease of 7.3% from November 2023. There were 1,352 new residential listings in November 2024.  New listings were 6.3% below the five-year average and 0.3% above the 10-year average for the month of November.

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From News Releases of the Ottawa Real Estate Board

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Ottawa MLS® Home Sales Hold Steady in Lackluster September

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October 6, 2023

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The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) totaled 946 units in September 2023. This was unchanged from September 2022.

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Home sales were 29.6% below the five-year average and 23.6% below the 10-year average for the month of September.

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On a year-to-date basis, home sales totaled 9,889 units over the first nine months of the year. This was a large decline of 13% from the same period in 2022.

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“Sales activity came in right on par with where it stood at the same time last year but was still running well below typical levels for a September,” said Ken Dekker, OREB President. “New listings have surged in the past several months, which has caused overall inventories to begin gradually rising again. However, available supply is still low by historical standards, and we have ample room to absorb more listings coming on the market. Our market is also right in the middle of balanced territory, and while MLS® Benchmark prices are down from last year they are still trending at about the same levels from 2021.”

Mortgage Digest: CREA updates 2025 forecast with higher sales and price growth

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January 16, 2025

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A regular review of the latest mortgage and real estate news, a recap of key headlines, and a preview of upcoming economic releases.

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The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has raised its 2025 home sale and price growth forecasts slightly compared to its fall projections.​

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“The assumption remains that the combination of two and a half years of pent-up demand and lower borrowing costs, together with the usual burst of spring listings will lead to a rebound in market activity across the country in 2025,” the association said in a release.

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It added that the December and fourth-quarter sales figures provide an early indication of what could unfold in the spring market.

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Sales forecast: CREA now expects 532,704 homes to sell via MLS in 2025, an 8.6% increase from 2024. This is up from its previous estimate of 6.6% growth, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated activity at the end of 2024. For 2026, sales are projected to rise another 4.5% to 556,662 units.

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Average price forecast: The national average home price is forecasted to reach $722,221 in 2025, a 4.7% increase year-over-year, and up slightly from its previous +4.4% forecast. CREA expects an additional 3.3% increase in 2026, bringing the average to $746,379.

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While regions like Alberta and Saskatchewan could see sharp price increases due to tight supply, British Columbia and Ontario may experience more moderate growth because of higher inventory.

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CRA to administer capital gains tax changes despite parliamentary prorogation

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The Department of Finance has confirmed that the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) will move forward with administering proposed changes to the capital gains inclusion rate, effective June 25, 2024.

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Under the proposed changes unveiled in Budget 2024, the taxable portion of capital gains will increase from 50% to 66.67% for corporations and trusts, as well as for individuals with annual capital gains exceeding $250,000.

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The CRA plans to release updated forms by January 31 and will provide relief from arrears interest and penalties for corporations and trusts with filing deadlines on or before March 3, 2025.

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If Parliament does not pass the legislation when it resumes, or if the government decides not to proceed with the changes, the CRA will cease administering the new rules, according to a statement from the agency.

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In October, economist Jack Mintz cautioned 

that raising the capital gains inclusion rate could result in the loss of over 414,000 jobs and a significant $90-billion blow to Canada’s economy.

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Consumer spending rebounded in December after slow start

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Holiday spending gained momentum in December after a sluggish November, as shoppers waited to take advantage of a federal tax holiday on children’s items.

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Retail sales, excluding autos, dipped in November following stronger activity earlier in the fall, according to RBC’s latest Consumer Spending Tracker. Spending on categories like hobbies, toys, and games dropped sharply late in November, coinciding with the announcement of the GST/HST exemption.

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The tax holiday, which began mid-December, likely encouraged consumers to hold off on purchases until they could take advantage of the savings, says report author Carrie Freestone.

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“The higher spending in December comes as population growth shows signs of slowing, leaving per-capita spending tracking a second consecutive increase in Q4,” Freestone noted.

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While the threat of tariffs under the incoming Trump administration in the U.S. remains a risk, “we continue to expect lower interest rates will help support stronger real per-capita consumer spending in the year ahead,” Freestone added.

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2024 Annual Information Return (AIR) filing now open in Ontario

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Licensed mortgage brokerages and administrators in Ontario can now begin filing their 2024 Annual Information Return (AIR), a mandatory compliance requirement enforced by the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA). This year, FSRA has launched the AIR earlier to give businesses additional time to complete their submissions.

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Key details:

  • Who must file: All licensed brokerages and administrators, including those that did not conduct any business in 2024.

  • Purpose: The AIR collects information on business practices, internal controls, and market conditions to support FSRA’s risk assessment and regulatory oversight.

  • Submission deadline: March 31, 2025.

  • Submission method: The AIR must be filed via FSRA’s Licensing Link. Paper submissions are not accepted, and changes cannot be made once the form is submitted.

  • Consequences of non-compliance: Failing to file on time can result in penalties, including administrative monetary fines or licence suspension/revocation.

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Brokerages are also required to include details about their errors and omissions insurance coverage, and provide a designated email address for consumer complaints, which may appear in the FSRA public register.

For more information and to access the AIR form, visit FSRA’s website at fsrao.ca.

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For other provinces, filing requirements and deadlines may differ. It’s essential to consult the specific regulatory authority in your province or territory to understand their AIR filing obligations and timelines.

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Written by Steve Huebl 

Mortgage Industry News

 

 

OREA CEO Tim Hudak Statement on Federal Government Pledge to Remove GST on Purpose-Built Rentals

September 15, 2023

We cannot hope to solve the housing affordability crisis without addressing the need to have access to homes across the housing spectrum. 

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The Government of Canada’s pledge to remove GST on the construction of new rental buildings will go a long way towards making that happen, and OREA commends Housing Minister Sean Fraser and the Trudeau Government for putting this solution forward.

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For years, Ontario REALTORS® have called on all levels of government to expand the range of options and choices in the housing market, including rentals and other innovative housing solutions. The GST removal on rental buildings will encourage developers to build more homes that people can actually afford and is a big step in the right direction.

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This sentiment is shared by the Ontario government, with Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing Paul Calandra and Premier Ford also pledging to remove Ontario’s portion of the HST on the building of purpose-built rentals as soon as possible.

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OREA is pleased to see the collaboration and policy alignment between the federal and provincial governments when it comes to housing and bringing more supply to the market. This is the type of work we need to see in order to bring affordability home for all Canadians and we hope to see more alignment on housing policy across all levels of government.

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Now, municipalities need to join us at the table and consider pro-housing solutions, like ending exclusionary zoning and fighting NIMBYism, if we want to solve the housing affordability crisis in our major cities.

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OREA commends Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada for putting this pledge to build more homes forward, paving the way forward for the future of housing in Canada.”

- Tim Hudak, CEO of the Ontario Real Estate Association

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